Given the challenges it faces, South Africa’s most vital national resource may be optimism. No other white minority has ever peacefully negotiated itself out of power, as de Klerk’s government will have done by this weekend. And in the three days of voting that begin Tuesday, the nation’s 16 million black voters have their first chance ever to choose the country’s leaders-the crowning triumph of the anti-apartheid struggle. Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress is poised to take power amid an outpouring of joy. Still, blacks and whites alike have deep misgivings about what lies ahead. Many have stockpiled food: thousands of whites are leaving the country temporarily, on “vacation.” Buthelezi’s boycott magnified fears of violence. it also threatened to deny legitimacy to the election’s winners, crippling the new democracy at birth. Buthelezi’s startling about-face won’t end political violence. but at least now the major political players are all inside the same tent. And that alone is cause for hope.
Was there a secret deal? Mandela, de Klerk and Buthelezi denied it. Still, the agreement that was outlined in public made no concessions to the Zulu leader that weren’t offered months ago. Mandela and de Klerk agreed to constitutional protection for the Zulu monarchy held by Buthelezi’s nephew, King Goodwill Zwelithini. But they said nothing about Buthelezi’s demand that his tribal fiefdom in Natal province, KwaZulu, be granted autonomy. Political analysts speculated that Mandela had offered Buthelezi a key cabinet post. “They’re just mad, really,” Buthelezi told NEWSWEEK. He said he would reject any role in a multiparty unity" government that is to hold power for five years while a new Constitution is prepared. He chose to run for Parliament, leaving the battle for control of the new provincial government in Natal to an ally.
Buthelezi threw himself into the campaign with the zeal of the newly converted. In his first campaign appearance, he denounced the ANC as a “dangerous revolutionary organization run by communists” who would ruin the country through nationalization. Although Buthelezi’s announcement last week left him only five days to campaign, his Inkatha Freedom Party was prepared with more than a million pamphlets and placards bearing the ambiguous slogan WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT, VOTE IFP. And while election officials claimed weeks ago that for logistical reasons it was too late for Buthelezi to change his mind, they quickly agreed to add Inkatha by putting stickers on the bottom of 80 million ballot slips. Officials also rushed to set up an additional 900 polling places in Natal province, where the boycott had been strongest.
Buthelezi’s candidacy inevitably will cut Mandela’s victory margin. The ANC’s lead bad already begun to fade in recent weeks, especially in western Cape province. There, a surge of support among mixed-race voters for the National Party could deprive the ANC of a regional victory. And analysts say the ANC and Inkatha are now in a tight race for control of Natal province. Nationally, Inkatha is expected to get between 5 and 8 percent of the vote, shrinking the ANC’s total to somewhere between 55 and 59 percent-enough to form a government, but hardly the sweeping mandate to rewrite the Constitution that party leaders had sought. The alternative to an electoral battle with Inkatha was far worse-escalating violence and the threat of guerrilla war in Natal. “It was going to be mayhem,” said University of Natal political scientist Mervyn Frost.
Even without a full-blown confrontation with Inkatha, Mandela will need all the help be can get. The pent-up frustrations of oppressed blacks-and the ANC’s own rhetoric-have fostered inflated expectations of overnight gains. The job of upgrading housing, education and medical care will be crushing. An unsullied election at least gives the new government a fighting chance of meeting the challenge.
